By Dr. Dawit Tesfay
A new political analysis by institutional policy researcher Dr. Dawit Tesfay argues that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is using the language of self determination not as a genuine roadmap toward sovereignty, but as a strategy to preserve what he describes as a collapsing patronage based political system.
In the paper titled The Cart Before the Horse, Tesfay contends that meaningful sovereignty requires strong institutions before political declarations, and argues that TPLF leaders have failed to establish the institutional foundations necessary for any future independent Tigrayan state.
According to the analysis, the central question is not whether Tigrayans possess legitimate political aspirations. Tesfay acknowledges that many Tigrayans hold differing views ranging from full independence to enhanced federal autonomy within Ethiopia. Instead, he argues that the key issue is whether the political actors promoting independence are capable of building the institutions required to sustain such a project.
“The TPLF cannot build independent Tigray. It cannot even restore pre war Tigray,” Tesfay writes, arguing that the movement’s independence rhetoric functions more as a political survival mechanism than a practical state building agenda.
Institutions Before Sovereignty
Drawing on examples from the United States, Ireland, Israel and Kosovo, the paper argues that successful state formation historically depended on the establishment of governance structures before or alongside declarations of independence.
Tesfay points to the American colonies’ development of governmental institutions prior to international recognition, Ireland’s creation of administrative structures before the establishment of the Irish Free State, and Israel’s institution building efforts during the British Mandate period.
According to the analysis, these cases demonstrate that sovereignty is sustainable only when supported by functioning institutions including courts, civil services, revenue systems and accountable security structures.
The paper argues that TPLF’s current independence discourse does not appear to be accompanied by comparable institution building efforts.
Montevideo Convention and Statehood
The study also examines the criteria established under the 1933 Montevideo Convention, which identifies a permanent population, defined territory, functioning government and the capacity to engage in foreign relations as the basic requirements for statehood.
While acknowledging that Tigray possesses both a population and a defined territory, Tesfay argues that the requirement for a functioning government remains unresolved.
He contends that genuine governance requires independent courts, accountable public institutions, transparent administration and professional civil services. The paper argues that TPLF’s historical governance model relied heavily on party structures and patronage networks rather than independent institutions.
As a result, the analysis concludes that any future claim to sovereignty would require significant institutional reforms before it could achieve practical viability.
Independence Narrative and Political Survival
A major section of the report focuses on what Tesfay describes as the political purpose behind TPLF’s independence rhetoric.
According to the analysis, political organizations facing declining influence often adopt emotionally powerful narratives to shield themselves from accountability and institutional reform. In Tigray’s case, Tesfay argues that the language of self determination is being used to equate criticism of TPLF leadership with opposition to Tigrayan interests.
The paper claims that demands for accountability, implementation of the Pretoria Agreement and challenges from rival political actors are frequently framed as attacks on Tigrayan identity rather than political disagreements.
Tesfay argues that this narrative serves to protect established patronage networks rather than advance genuine self governance.
Governance and Clan Networks
The report further alleges that clan and patronage relationships continue to play a significant role in TPLF’s organizational structure.
According to the paper, appointments and access to political influence have historically been shaped by networks of personal loyalty and geographic affiliation rather than merit based selection.
Tesfay argues that this model is fundamentally incompatible with the inclusive institutions required for democratic self determination.
The analysis maintains that future governance structures in Tigray should be based on transparent public institutions that serve all citizens regardless of political affiliation, family connections or geographic background.
Post War Reconstruction Challenges
One of the paper’s central arguments is that TPLF has not yet restored the institutional capacity that existed in Tigray before the war.
Tesfay notes the destruction of healthcare facilities, schools, administrative infrastructure and professional capacity during the conflict. He argues that rebuilding these sectors should be a priority before discussions about statehood.
According to the paper, the inability to restore pre war governance structures raises serious questions about the feasibility of establishing an entirely new sovereign state.
The report concludes that sustainable self governance depends on rebuilding educational institutions, healthcare systems, professional civil services and economic infrastructure.
Somaliland as an Alternative Model
Tesfay points to Somaliland as an example of what he considers a more successful bottom up state building process.
The analysis highlights Somaliland’s reliance on traditional institutions, broad political consensus and gradual constitutional development following the collapse of the Somali state.
According to the report, Somaliland’s relative stability emerged from years of institution building and reconciliation rather than immediate declarations of sovereignty.
Tesfay argues that any future political project in Tigray would require a similarly inclusive and institution focused approach.
Proposed Path Forward
Rather than prioritizing independence declarations, the paper calls for constitutional development, judicial independence, civil service reform, economic modernization and investment in education and healthcare.
Tesfay argues that these measures would provide the foundations necessary for any future political arrangement, whether within Ethiopia’s federal framework or through another model of self governance.
The report states that genuine self determination must be built through functioning institutions rather than political slogans.
Conclusion
In his concluding assessment, Tesfay argues that TPLF’s pro independence rhetoric reflects a strategy aimed at preserving political influence rather than advancing a practical roadmap for sovereignty.
“The people of Tigray have genuine aspirations for genuine self determination,” he writes. “They deserve political actors who take those aspirations seriously enough to build the institutions that genuine self determination requires.”
The paper concludes that courts, schools, hospitals, accountable governance structures and constitutional frameworks are the essential foundations of any future political project in Tigray, and that institution building must precede any credible claim to sovereignty.
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