A Defining Moment for General Tadesse: Turning Crisis into Inclusive Leadership
By Ermias Amare.
TPLF’s announcement to reinstate the pre-war regional council and its accusation that the federal government is violating the peace deal immediately brought two things to mind when I read the press release from the proscribed party.
First, they have been aligned with Shaebia for a long time as part of this alliance. This move appears to be an attempt to finally translate that relationship into concrete action. While I understand their grievances especially the lack of full implementation of the Pretoria Agreement their statement is, in essence, a call for confrontation.
Second, ironically, this development may be a blessing in disguise. If TPLF and Shaebia are indeed aligned, then there likely won’t be a third war. They will either succeed together or fail together unless one betrays the other. For now, I’m reminded of a phrase my wife always says: መጥፉኢኻ ይብረሀካ.
I don’t favor one side over another, but one thing is certain: there is no military solution. I have never been a fan of this approach, and I have no doubt that this will prove to be yet another miscalculation in the making.
Five years ago, they believed they could win the war for several reasons: most of the ENDF was in Tigray, the federal government’s security apparatus was in disarray, they assumed Shaebia wouldn’t attack, and they believed they were financially prepared. They mobilized the entire region, including political parties, and even went ahead with an election. The rest is history.
Now, this feels like déjà vu. They seem to believe that PP is weak, Fano is strong, Shaebia is on their side, and that Sudan and Egypt are against the Abiy administration. Even cultural signals like Tedy Afro’s song are being treated as a litmus test.
There’s a saying that captures this situation well: people provoke you until they bring out the ugly side of you & then they play a victim role when you go there. My view is that the federal government should remain restrained and continue to engage through diplomatic pressure.
It’s also important to note that the proscribed TPLF, as an organized elite group, no longer holds political legitimacy. People are exhausted by war-mongering narratives. In contrast, this situation may actually strengthen General Tadesse adding political and moral legitimacy to his existing legal standing. His assertiveness last week may help consolidate support from the silent majority.
If anything, he should seize this moment and call for an all-inclusive government.
As for those backing the Shaebia-supported Debretsion/Menojino faction, it appears to be limited to segments of the diaspora, some rank-and-file members, and a few diehard affiliated digital media outlets.
Ever since politico-military actors took control of the region, politics the art of the possible has been pushed out of reach. Whether the call to reinstate the pre-war council succeeds remains to be seen, but the consequences will be significant and likely irreversible, with the risk of dragging the war-torn region back to the center of conflict. At the very least, it forces Ethiopia to stop kicking the can down the road. Peace for all!!
#Ermias Amare is a U.S.-based Ethiopian-American diaspora,Architect, and political commentator who writes on Ethiopian politics, peace, and regional dynamics. Horn News Hub thanks him for his continued insightful contributions.
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