Mekelle/Tel Aviv/Nairobi/Pretoria/London
Will the TPLF Be Re-Designated as a Terrorist Organization?
By Contirbutor
Addis Ababa — Ethiopia’s fragile peace may face a decisive test as federal authorities prepare an emergency parliamentary session to deliberate whether the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its armed wing, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), should once again be classified as terrorist organizations. The move, according to senior officials who spoke to Horn News Hub under condition of anonymity, follows fresh allegations that Tigrayan forces have violated the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement by crossing into Afar region and attacking civilian areas.
The Afar regional government has accused Tigrayan units of seizing six villages and shelling populated areas on November 5, 2025 — actions it called “acts of terrorism” that threaten national security and the peace process. The Tigray Interim Regional Administration (IRA), however, has strongly denied any involvement, dismissing the claims as “baseless” and suggesting the violence may have been carried out by rogue or splinter groups.
If approved, the re-designation could authorize the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) to launch limited or full-scale operations in northern Ethiopia, effectively ending the two-year ceasefire that ended one of Africa’s deadliest conflicts. Officials close to the government say the measure aims to “prevent renewed insurgency” in Tigray, amid concerns that hardline TPLF elements are regrouping with possible support from Eritrean and Egyptian interests.
The potential reversal would mark a dramatic policy shift. The TPLF was delisted from Ethiopia’s terrorist register in 2023 as part of the Pretoria deal, which ended the 2020–2022 war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. That peace accord allowed humanitarian access to Tigray, reintegrated the region into the federal structure, and set a framework for disarmament and political transition.
Yet implementation has stalled. Reports from Tigray indicate widespread frustration among demobilized fighters, youth, and internally displaced persons (IDPs), compounded by food shortages and disputes over territories still controlled by other forces. The absence of scheduled elections and limited progress on reconstruction have further eroded confidence in the interim administration.
Analysts warn that re-designating the TPLF as a terrorist entity could reignite a regional conflict with wider implications. “Such a step risks undoing fragile political progress and could push Tigray back into isolation,” said one Addis Ababa-based security analyst. “It may also complicate Ethiopia’s regional role in counterterrorism, especially in Somalia, and its diplomatic balancing with Egypt and Sudan over the Nile.”
Eritrea, which fought alongside Ethiopian forces during the 2020–2022 war but has since had tense relations with Addis Ababa, is closely watching developments. Observers suggest that President Isaias Afwerki may see renewed instability in Tigray as an opportunity to strengthen Eritrea’s influence along the northern border.
Humanitarian agencies are equally alarmed. The UN and aid groups warn that any new military engagement could trigger mass displacement and worsen famine-like conditions in northern Ethiopia, where millions already depend on food assistance.
As Ethiopia’s parliament prepares to convene, both the government and the Tigray administration face mounting pressure to return to dialogue. The coming days will likely determine whether the Pretoria framework can be salvaged or if the country edges toward another devastating confrontation.
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