Mekelle/Tel Aviv/Nairobi/Pretoria/London
TPLF’s Institutional Legacy Examined in New HAGR Report on Tigray’s Political and Security Crisis
A new analytical report released by the Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR) presents a detailed assessment of Tigray’s current political instability, tracing its roots to decades of what the study describes as extractive political and security structures built under the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The report argues that the region’s present fragmentation, weakened institutions, and rising tensions among competing power blocs reflect longstanding patterns of governance that prioritized military dominance, secrecy, and elite networks over institutional development.
According to HAGR, Tigray’s political culture was shaped over more than 40 years by centralized control within a narrow military-intelligence elite, limited space for political pluralism, and a security sector designed primarily to protect leadership figures rather than the public. The report says these conditions contributed to widespread institutional erosion, particularly exposed in the aftermath of the 2020–2022 war.
Warlord Structures and Militarized Governance
The assessment highlights the emergence, particularly after 2018, of an informal militarized group referred to as “Above the Core.” HAGR describes this network as a collection of military leaders, wartime financiers, and security operatives who exerted significant influence over political decisions, humanitarian supply chains, and local administrations. The report asserts that this contributed to parallel command structures and weakened civilian authority, deepening mistrust across society.
Competing Political Camps in Post-War Tigray
HAGR identifies three broad political tendencies shaping today’s governance debates:
The Old Guard, composed of figures who defend TPLF’s record and are cautious about sweeping reforms;
The “Above the Core” faction, described as a militarized group prioritizing control and operating outside formal civilian oversight;
Reformist and civic-based actors, including leaders within the interim administration, youth groups, and civil society, who call for transparency, accountability, and institution-building.
The report notes that these divisions, while not formally organized, have influenced decision-making and public discourse during the fragile post-war recovery period.
Institutional Strain and the Lessons of Comparative Cases
Drawing on global research, including the work of economists Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, HAGR argues that Tigray’s political trajectory resembles what scholars describe as an “extractive system”—a model where power and economic opportunity concentrate within narrow elites. The report cites comparative examples from Angola, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique to illustrate how liberation movements that transition into dominant political forces often struggle to build resilient state institutions.
It also references cases such as Rwanda, South Korea, and Brazil to demonstrate how regions emerging from crisis can strengthen governance if political actors prioritize inclusive reforms.
Missed Moments for Reform
The study identifies several historical turning points—including 1991, 2001, 2018, and the immediate post-war period—where broader institutional reforms might have been undertaken. At each stage, HAGR argues, political elites opted for continuity rather than restructuring governance frameworks.
Recommendations for Stabilization
The report calls for steps aimed at rebuilding public institutions, including:
demilitarization of political processes,
strengthening civilian oversight,
establishing independent corruption investigations,
implementing transparent legal frameworks, and
launching a “Truth, Accountability, and Institutional Reform Commission” to address longstanding grievances.
Conclusion
HAGR concludes that Tigray faces a pivotal moment, with stability dependent on the region’s ability to shift from personality-driven politics to rule-based governance. The report emphasizes that long-term peace will require rebuilding institutions weakened by decades of conflict and centralized control.
The findings add to a broader discussion among policymakers, civil society, and regional observers about how Tigray can transition from post-conflict fragility toward a more accountable and democratic political environment.
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