Mekelle/Tel Aviv/Nairobi/Pretoria/London
TPLF Draws Red Line on Electoral Participation as Dispute Over Legal Status Deepens
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has sharpened its stance on Tigray’s political future, warning that no election in the region can be held without its formal participation. The declaration underscores a widening rift between the party and Ethiopia’s federal authorities, complicating efforts to stabilize Tigray’s post-conflict political trajectory.
Legal Status at the Heart of the Standoff
At the briefing, the TPLF spokesperson reiterated that the party’s legal status revoked by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) in 2021 remains a core point of contention. The party argues that the revocation, issued at the height of the war, was both unconstitutional and politically motivated.
The spokesperson described the NEBE’s decision as part of a federal strategy to reshape Tigray’s political landscape by weakening the TPLF and elevating newly allied groups. By doing so, the TPLF said, federal authorities are attempting to influence the region’s next electoral cycle.
Pretoria Agreement as a Reference Point
The Pretoria Agreement, which ended the two-year war, is central to the party’s argument. The TPLF maintains that the accord implicitly requires the restoration of its political rights, including legal recognition, as part of the disarmament-and-reintegration process.
While the agreement does not explicitly outline electoral modalities, it obliges both sides to facilitate an inclusive political environment. TPLF officials argue that denying the party legal status contradicts the spirit of reconciliation and undermines the wider objective of restoring normal governance in Tigray.
Federal Intentions Under Scrutiny
The party accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration of preparing conditions for elections without the TPLF, allegedly by supporting alternative groups and interim structures in the region.
The spokesperson warned that any attempt to organize elections unilaterally or to present new political actors as substitutes for the TPLF would be met with firm resistance.
“An election in Tigray that does not involve the TPLF will not happen,” the spokesperson said, framing participation as a non-negotiable prerequisite for credible polls.
A Complicated Path to Elections
For Addis Ababa, the situation presents a dilemma. Integrating the TPLF back into formal politics remains politically sensitive at the national level, given the party’s role in the conflict and the broader political polarization it evokes. For Tigray, however, the TPLF continues to be the dominant political force with deep grassroots structures, making any election without it potentially destabilizing.
Independent analysts note that holding elections without the TPLF would risk delegitimizing the process and could inflame tensions in a region still recovering from war. Conversely, reinstating the party could trigger political backlash elsewhere in Ethiopia and heighten federal regional frictions.
Unresolved Questions Ahead
With no clear roadmap for restoring the party’s legal status and no mutually agreed timeline for regional elections, the impasse appears likely to persist. Diplomats and observers say the issue could become a major test of the Pretoria Agreement’s durability, as it touches on the core questions of political inclusion, sovereignty, and the post-war balance of power.
The latest warnings from the TPLF suggest that negotiations formal or otherwise will be required to avoid a renewed political crisis in Tigray. For now, the region’s electoral future remains uncertain, with both sides holding firm to positions that reflect deeper unresolved tensions from the conflict.
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