Mekelle/Tel Aviv/Nairobi/Pretoria/London
Preventing a New War in the Horn of Africa: A Race Against Time
By Mehari Tadele Maru
The Horn of Africa stands on the brink of renewed conflict. Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea threaten to unravel the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, which ended the devastating Tigray war but remains only partially implemented. Violence continues in Oromia, Amhara, and Sudan, while millions remain displaced and humanitarian needs soar.
Despite these dangers, the readiness for preventive diplomacy is alarmingly low. The African Union, United Nations, and other partners have urged restraint, yet their monitoring and mediation mechanisms lack resources, authority, and political leverage. The Monitoring, Verification, and Compliance Mission under the Pretoria deal exists in name but struggles to enforce commitments such as troop withdrawals, disarmament, and the return of displaced people.
Political will is mixed. Ethiopian and Eritrean leaders publicly deny plans for war, but mistrust runs deep and key provisions of the peace accord—such as resolving disputed territories and guaranteeing party rights—remain contested. Internal Ethiopian conflicts, especially in Amhara and Oromia, further weaken the government’s capacity to engage in credible negotiations.
The stakes are regional and global. A new Ethiopia–Eritrea war could destabilize the entire Red Sea corridor, threatening one of the world’s most critical maritime routes and compounding crises in Sudan, Somalia, and beyond. Conflict-driven economic losses in the Horn already exceed half a trillion dollars, while Africa accounts for 37% of the world’s 123 million displaced people.
Preventive diplomacy demands urgent action: renewed commitment to the Pretoria Agreement, credible mediation by the AU and IGAD, transparent monitoring of troop movements, and the inclusion of civil society in peace efforts. Without decisive steps, the Horn risks sliding into a Yemen-like quagmire, where instability on land undermines security at sea and inflicts yet another cycle of suffering on millions.
