Mekelle/Tel Aviv/Nairobi/Pretoria/London
By Contributor
Addressing Ethnic Federalism Is Essential for National Cohesion and Stability
Ethiopia’s forthcoming national dialogue arrives at a moment of profound political exhaustion and social fracture. Years of conflict, contested identities, and institutional breakdown have exposed deep structural weaknesses in the state. At the center of these challenges lies ethnic federalism — a system designed to manage diversity but increasingly implicated in instability. Any serious national dialogue that seeks lasting peace and cohesion cannot avoid confronting this foundational issue.
The Origins and Intent of Ethnic Federalism
Ethnic federalism was introduced in the early 1990s as a corrective to decades of centralized rule that marginalized many communities. By granting regions autonomy based on ethno-linguistic identity, the system aimed to recognize diversity, promote self-rule, and address historical grievances. On paper, it promised equality, cultural preservation, and political inclusion.
However, three decades on, the gap between intention and outcome has become stark. Rather than resolving Ethiopia’s national question, ethnic federalism has often entrenched identity as the primary basis of political mobilization, competition, and power.
From Recognition to Fragmentation
One of the most visible consequences of ethnic federalism has been political fragmentation. Regional boundaries tied to identity have turned ethnicity into a zero-sum political asset. This has encouraged elites to instrumentalize ethnic narratives to consolidate power, silence dissent, and deflect accountability. Political competition is frequently framed not around policy or governance performance, but around perceived ethnic threats.
This dynamic has weakened national institutions. Federal authority is often contested, while regional administrations operate with significant autonomy but limited accountability. The result is a fragile center, uneven governance, and frequent constitutional disputes over borders, identity, and jurisdiction.
Ethnic Federalism and Conflict Dynamics
Localized conflicts across Ethiopia are rarely spontaneous. Many are rooted in unresolved boundary disputes, minority protection failures within regions, and competition over land and resources — all intensified by the ethnic organization of the state. When administrative borders align with identity, political disagreements quickly escalate into communal violence.
The system has also struggled to protect minorities living within ethnically defined regions. While ethnic federalism promised self-rule, it often delivered new forms of exclusion for those who fall outside dominant regional identities. This contradiction has fueled displacement, grievances, and cycles of retaliation.
The National Dialogue: Why This Issue Cannot Be Avoided
The Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission (ENDC) was established to address the root causes of conflict and build consensus on the country’s political future. Avoiding ethnic federalism would undermine this mandate. For many Ethiopians, the system is no longer an abstract constitutional arrangement but a lived reality shaping security, opportunity, and belonging.
Addressing ethnic federalism does not require a predetermined outcome — whether reform, restructuring, or replacement. What it requires is an honest, inclusive, and evidence-based conversation that allows citizens to assess what has worked, what has failed, and why. Suppressing this debate risks reinforcing the very tensions the dialogue seeks to resolve.
Toward a More Cohesive Political Framework
Re-examining ethnic federalism should focus on principles rather than slogans. National cohesion does not mean erasing diversity, nor does unity require forced centralization. The challenge is to design a system that balances shared citizenship with local self-governance, protects minorities everywhere, and discourages identity-based political monopolies.
Key questions must be openly debated:
How can citizenship be strengthened beyond ethnic affiliation?
How can federalism promote cooperation rather than competition among regions?
What safeguards are needed to protect minorities within regional states?
How can accountability and rule of law be enforced across all levels of government?
These are not technical questions alone; they are political and moral ones that demand broad public participation.
Conclusion: A Necessary, Difficult Conversation
Ethiopia’s crisis is not only the result of recent conflicts but of unresolved structural contradictions. Ethnic federalism, as currently practiced, has become a central fault line. Treating it as untouchable risks perpetuating instability; addressing it recklessly risks deepening division. The national dialogue offers a rare opportunity to navigate this dilemma responsibly.
By prioritizing ethnic federalism in a calm, inclusive, and evidence-driven manner, the ENDC can help Ethiopians move beyond polarized narratives toward a shared understanding of statehood. Without confronting this issue, any promise of sustainable peace and national renewal will remain incomplete.
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